The only Super Bowl betting guide you’ll ever need
Super Bowl 50 is almost here, which means that along with a veritable bacchanal of media frenzy, ritualistic violence, and Phil Simms crimes against the English language, we also get to gamble on just about every aspect of the game.
Here’s our guide to the most important and most entertaining prop bets you can make on Super Bowl 50.1 So sit back, pray that Peyton Manning doesn’t collapse in a cloud full of growth hormone after his first sack, and let Papa National Ave win you some money.
Game Result (spread)
Pick: So long as Carolina doesn’t go on a violent rampage and turn this into a blowout, both of these defenses should keep the game close and low-scoring. It’s anybody’s call who wins a mud match like that (which, by the way, would probably be the least sexy mud wrestling contest of all time), but in the case of a defensive battle you can expect the Broncos to cover a 6-point spread.
Game Result (money line)
Pick: It’s just about unconscionable to pick against FiveThirtyEight’s predictor on a money line bet. Even if -190 isn’t great odds, if Nate Silver’s genius robot has Carolina with a 59% chance of winning, it’s probably worth it.
Pick: Whatever Hillary Clinton’s campaign calls.
Team to win coin toss
Pick: If there’s a way that the NFL can institute some sort of systemic racism against Cam and the Panthers in a coin toss, by god Roger Goodell is going to find a way to do it.
Team That Wins Coin Toss wins the Game?
Pick: Holy shit pick yes. The team that wins is most likely to defer, and the team that defers is most likely to win, so with even odds (juice not factored in), you should absolutely pick ‘yes.’ Just do it.
Over 2:20 min: Even
Under 2:20 min: Even
Pick: Over. It’s Lady Gaga singing, and I get that she’s gone all “normal” on us this year, but that doesn’t mean she won’t still hold the big notes as long as she can. Plus, if the normal thing is all an act and she decides to do a Gregorian chant version, you’re golden.
First Scoring Play
FG or Safety: +150
Pick: Again, to stalwart defenses, but the odds for a touchdown aren’t that steep. A TD is a safe play if you think one team will come out hot, but if you think the game will get bogged down in a defensive slog as thick as Gary Kubiak’s hair, then bet on the saving grace of Brandon McManus’ kicking.
First Scoring Play — Exact Outcome
Panthers TD: +150
Panthers FG: +350
Panthers Safety: +3300
Broncos TD: +225
Broncos FG: +375
Broncos Safety: +3300
Pick: PANTHERS SAFETY REMEMBER WHAT PEYTON DID LAST TIME!!!???
Over 3.5: -350
Under 3.5: +275
Pick: -350 is way to high for a game that could feature more nuts rubbed on QB’s helmets than TD’s. Go under with a low risk, high reward potential.
Total Successful FGs
Over 2.5: -210
Under 2.5: +170
Pick: BRANDON MCMANUS IS PEYTON MANNING’S PERSONAL LORD AND SAVIOR. GO OVER.
350+ passing yards: +900
50+ rushing yards: +150
100+ rush yards: +1200
25+ completions: +500
Scores rushing TD and Carolina wins: +200
Pick(s): Why don’t you just live a little and bet on all of these happening. The Cam Newton bandwagon is heading out of the station whether you’re ready or not. The question is, do you want to be the kind of guy who can dab without feeling ashamed, or are you more of a khaki shorts with boat shoes kind of person. The choice is yours.
300+ passing yards: +175
350+ passing yards: +500
30+ completions: +750
Pick(s): Not listed: Peyton Manning’s shoulder falls off midway through the second quarter due to lack of cartilage. We know he’ll sacrifice any promise of feeling in his hands for the next 30 years in order to win this game, but there’s no way Peyton Manning is physically capable of doing any of these things.
Pick: No, even though you know there’s a secret part of you that feels a surge of white hot passion rush to your cheeks every time Von Miller thrusts his hips.
Missed Extra Point?
Pick: Everything about the new extra points rule is terrible, and that includes this bet. It should not be this hard to bet that there won’t be a missed extra point. Bet yes, but know that you should be getting way more reward for your risk.
How many times will “dab” or “dabbing” be said by Announcers?
Over 2: Even
Under 2: -140
Pick: Over. For the love of God, over.
How many times will Cam do the open shirt Superman?
Over 2.5: Even
Under 2.5: -140
Pick: Over. How many times will Seattle fans exhale in moral outrage? Waaay over whatever line you’d think of setting.
Will Ted Ginn Jr. drop a pass?
Pick: Yes. Why is this even a question? Somebody at Bovada must be a Ginn Jr. fan, because he just dropped the ball on that one.
How many times will the Golden Gate Bridge be shown during the broadcast?
Over .5: -300
Under .5: +200
Pick: OVER. Bonus points if CBS cuts afterward to two techbros in the Mission kicking somebody off a soccer field.
Will Peyton Cry on TV?
Pick: Yes, but it will only out of anger that somebody would dare bring up the HGH business again.
Will the announcers mention that Kubiak was Elway’s backup?
Pick: That’s way too good of a tidbit for even Simms to fuck up. Go yes.
Will Mike Carey be wrong about a challenge?
Pick: Luckily for Phil Simms, the only person who seems to be worse at their job for CBS is Mike Carey, who continues to astound with his ability to be incorrect about a game’s officiating. And on a day when the actual referees for the Super Bowl would have been Mike Carey’s superiors, the odds of him being wrong are good enough to bet yes.
Which song will Coldplay play first?
Adventure of a Lifetime: +200
Fix You: +350
Sky Full of Stars: +450
Viva la Vida: +500
Head Full of Dreams: +1000
Pick: Odds that anybody at your party is excited about Coldplay are currently at around +1200. Go “Viva la Vida,” because opening with “Fix You” before the NFL’s biggest game seems a little too on-the-nose here.
Will there be an earthquake during the game?
Pick: You sick bastard. Don’t you remember the 1989 World Series? Bet yes if you don’t care that these are terrible odds and that you’ll be cursed with terrible karma for the rest of eternity.
What color will Beyonce’s shoes be?
Any other color: +700
Pick: As rosy and red as John Fox’s cheeks during a disastrous mid-November loss. Play the field.
Will Peyton announce his retirement in a post-game interview?
Pick: [singing] “Indecision starts right now.”
Will Cam break the Super Bowl record for most rushing yards by a QB (it’s 64)?
Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first?
None of the Above: +225
Pick: If it’s Cam, let’s hope to God the first thing he thanks is Versace, and if it’s Peyton get ready to drink everything in sight if he thanks the Guyer Institute of Molecular Medicine first.
How many times will Archie Manning be shown on TV?
Over 1.5: Even
Under 1.5: -140
Pick: Over. Way over. You’re telling me that if the game is even remotely close in the 4th quarter CBS will be able to resist zooming into his box every time Archie so much as gets up to go to the bathroom?
How many times will “John Fox” be said?
Over 1: -140
Under 1: Even
Pick: John Fox led both of these teams to stunning defeats in the Super Bowl, and Denver fans hate John Fox enough to think that he manipulated a cunning exit from the team while also having the approximate mental capacity of Brendan Dassey. This goes way over.
Gatorade color dumped on winning coach?
Pick: AND IT WAS ALL YELLOW. If you’re degenerate enough to gamble on the color of the Gatorade, might as well be for the only semi decent flavor.
Super Bowl MVP
Cam Newton: -130
Peyton Manning: +275
Luke Kuechly: +1400
Ted Ginn Jr. +2000
CJ Anderson: +2000
Von Miller: +2000
Greg Olsen: +2200
Jonathan Stewart: +2200
Demaryius Thomas: +2000
Emmanuel Sanders: +2000
Josh Norman: +2800
Aqib Talib: +3300
DeMarcus Ware: +3300
Pick: PEYTON FUCKING MANNING. If the Broncos win, no way is that going to anybody but The Notorious P.F.M., so the only question remaining will be how much lubriderm is visible on Jim Nantz’s hands as he gives Peyton the trophy.