Our best predictions for all 10 perfect matches on MTV's Are You The One

We think we know all 10 Are You The One perfect matches

November 11, 2015 / by / 9 Comments

[UPDATE: We were so, so wrong. Read the final results here, and thanks for playing along all season!]

After episode 8, our all-powerful, all-knowing, all-loving matchup grid is starting to fill up. We can’t say for sure, but these are our best predictions for the 10 perfect matches in the house before next week’s series finale:

BEHOLD! The Grid! Love it. Respect it. Take body shots off of it.

Our best predictions for all 10 perfect matches on MTV's Are You The One

Analysis

The key to making our picks for each perfect match is to start with what we know (Connor / Chelsey as a perfect match, the blackout in episode 2, and each week’s number of beams indicating a perfect match) and use the probability of individual pairings to work, through the process of elimination, to figure out the most likely matches that would have resulted in each week’s beams. Here’s how we got to each pairing:

Chelsey / Connor

Duh. These two are great. Let’s be happy for them and celebrate Connor, King Among Men.

Kayla / Austin

First, let’s look at Kiki/Tyler. At first glance these two should be a shoo-in as perfect matches — in fact, whoever the hell runs this Wikipedia statistical breakdown had them at a 64% likelihood of being a perfect match. But that table only operates in a vacuum, in other words, it only calculates the odds of any two pairs being a perfect match, rather than1 seeing the contingent effect that those two being a perfect match would have on the rest of the house. So although we initially believed Kiki/Tyler to be a perfect match, their pairing was untenable as we went through the remaining options,2 and there wasn’t a more likely outcome that arose from Kiki/Tyler being a perfect match.

Now, to Kayla/Austin. After Kiki/Tyler, these two had the best individual odds of being a perfect match at 52%. Our assumption here, and it’s not a big one, is that Austin and Kayla are a perfect match, and one of the three perfect matches (including Connor/Chelsey) from episode 7.

Britni / Hunter

Only one of three couples who were matched up in week 1 — Britni/Hunter, Stacey/Alec, and Hannah/Zak — could be a perfect match after week 1, since we only had two beams in week 1 and one of them was for Connor/Chelsey. We’re assuming that Britni/Hunter are the perfect match, since the individual odds on them are so high (48%), and because their pairing is the most likely way to explain the beams the house received each week. Because the couple was also paired together in weeks 3, 6, and 8 (all weeks that the house got three beams), we know that only one other couple could have been paired in weeks 3, 6, or 8.

Rashida / Devin

Which brings us to Rashida and Devin. Not only are their individual odds high (44%), but they also were paired in weeks 3, 6, and 8, the most likely cause for the third beam (behind Connor/Chelsey and Britni/Hunter) in those episodes.

Melanie / Chuck

The last of our really solid bets. A lot of both Melanie’s and Chuck’s options have been eliminated, clearing up their picture and giving them 40% odds of being a match. Furthermore, since the house got three beams in episode 7 (when the two were paired together), and we’ve already noted that Austin/Kayla and of course Connor/Chelsey were paired in week 7, it logically fits that Melanie and Chuck were the third beam that week.

Cheyenne / Zak

We know that in our situation, because of the couples we’ve already selected, Cheyenne can’t be matched with Tyler because of their pairings in episodes 3, 7, and 8, and that Zak can’t be matched with Kayla (because of the two-couples-in-week-one rule) or Hannah (they were also matched in 3, 7, and 8). Zak and Cheyenne match perfectly as the non-Connor/Chelsey beam from episode 4, as all the other possible pairs from week 4 were already eliminated.

Amanda / Tyler

Similar logic applies to Amanda and Tyler, and explains why a Tyler/Kiki matchup seemed less likely than it initially appeared. The risk is mitigated by the fact that Amanda and Tyler are the only available second beam in our situation for week 5.

Stacey / Nelson

Assuming everything up to here holds (and that’s an admittedly tenuous assumption), the only three remaining options for Stacey are Alec, Mike, and Nelson. Stacey can’t be with Alec (because the second beam couple from week 1 has already been chosen), and she can’t be with Mike (we’ve already selected the two non-Connor/Chelsey pairs from week 7). That leaves Nelson for her to be ridiculously clingy towards! Lucky Nelson.

Kiki / Alec

Here’s where all of our assumptions start to pile up, and we venture into guessing territory. At this point in our situation the only two options for Alec are Kiki and Hannah. Considering all possible options after episode 8, Alec has a 20% chance of being a perfect match with Kiki and only an 8% chance of being with Hannah.3 And maybe at this point, we finally FINALLY get to start taking personality into account in the process. For what it’s worth, Kiki/Alec (needy people who are sweet sometimes and crazy the next) seem more in line with each other, much like the filet mignons of dumb hot people, Hannah and Mike.

Hannah / Mike

I hope these two beautiful, dumb people go make beautiful, dumb kids who will grow up to suck at reality TV in a house full of beautiful, dumb people.