Here's what we know (and what we think we know) about every match so far for Season 4 of MTV's Are You The One?

Are You The One Season 4? Matchup Grid

June 13, 2016 / by / 6 Comments

Welcome back to everybody’s favorite form of mathematically-sanctioned, alcohol-fueled sexual exploration. No, not the Bachelor, and no, not after hours at the University of Chicago’s college bar on Blaze Pascal night — it’s… MTV’s Are You The One?, back for another booze- and razor-thin-self-confidence-fueled fourth season!

Which contestants will find true love, which contestants will let their inner MachiavelLITian personalities shine through, and which will be relegated to America’s fifth favorite sport, The Challenge?

Only time and the cold, hard science of the Truth Booth can tell. As mere mortals we can only hope to discern the wishes of the many-faced love god, but perhaps with the help of the double-fisted mysteries of basic human logic and the process of elimination, we can come close to rising to at least Ryan Devlin levels of eternal glory with our advanced predictive analytics.

Below is our all-seeing, all-knowing, all-balls-outing Matchup Grid, which we’ll update after each episode to try and determine all 10 perfect matches in the house. Now without further ado, here’s the grid as it stands after eight incredible episodes:

Matchup grid for AYTO perfect matches after episode 8 of season 4

As a bonus, using the unstoppable power of deduction, we’ve actually been able to determine all ten perfect matches for the house. You can find that breakdown and matchup grid HERE, although those who would prefer to remain shrouded in ignorance can follow our episode-by-episode breakdown below:

Episode One

The episode starts things off right, with a rapid fire trip to the Truth Booth. Unfortunately for Prosper and Tori, who both seem like two of the coolest people in the house, they’re deemed unworthy of a perfect match in the eyes of the unfeeling Truth Booth science machine.

The matchups:

  • Kaylen and Giovanni
  • Victoria and Cam
  • Francesca and the Israeli master of PR himself, Asaf
  • Emma and mopey-ass John
  • Camille and Prosper
  • Alyssa and Sam
  • Julia and Morgan
  • Nicole and Stephen
  • Tori and Tyler
  • Mikala and Cameron
  • Which results in… 3 BEAMS BETCHES. FIRE UP THE ULTRALIGHT BEAMS, IT’S TIME TO DO BODY SHOTS OFF OF THE ROCK-HARD WELLS OF ABDOMINAL MUSCLES IN ASAF’S STOMACH.

    Obviously it’s too early to draw too many conclusions from this result, but that’s a great start and going to come in mighty handy down the road.

    Episode Two

    The episode two provides a lot more useful information, including Julia and John striking out in the Truth Booth. In a surprising amount of strategy considering how much alcohol has been plied into these contestants, they make a strategic move that should pay off later, pairing up Mikala/Cameron and Kaylen/Giovanni as the only repeat matches from episode 1 and episode 2.

    The matchups:

  • Alyssa and Morgan
  • Camille and Asaf
  • Emma and Prosper
  • Francesca and Sam
  • Julia and Cam
  • Kaylen and Giovanni (a repeat from episode 1)
  • Mikala and Cameron (another repeat from episode 1)
  • Nicole and John
  • Tori and Stephen
  • Victoria and Tyler
  • Which results in… 3 FREAKING MORE BEAMS!! This house is on fire — time for a heat check. They should all celebrate by getting drunk and making bad decisions… oh wait, they already did.

    Again, probably too early to draw too much in the way of conclusions, but we’re getting somewhere fast, especially with 3 beams in the each of the first two weeks and both Kaylen/Giovanni and Mikala/Cameron getting matched up in both episode 1 and episode 2.

    UPDATED

    We’re raising both Kaylen/Giovanni and Mikala/Cameron to “decent odds” status. Considering they were the only couples matched up in both episodes 1 and 2, and that the house received 3 beams in both episodes, there’s a very good chance that at least one of those pairings is correct. The sages at Wikipedia have assigned both couple 61% odds of being a perfect match, which seems right because the people running that grid are clearly smarter than we are.

    The updated grid as it now stands looks like so:

    Updated to reflect the odds that either Kaylen/Giovanni or Mikala/Cameron (or maybe both) are a match.

    Episode Three

    Things start really move forward in episode 3, as the house delivers their first perfect match (our intern is currently checking if this is the fastest the house has drunkenly stumbled on their perfect match in the show’s history) between Mikala and Cameron. Not only is this a good excuse for partying, but the perfect match plus the ensuing matchup ceremony does significant work towards moving to knowing all 10 perfect matches:

    The matchups in week three:

  • Alyssa and Sam (a repeat matchup from episode 1)
  • Camille and Asaf (a repeat matchup from episode 2)
  • Emma and Prosper (a repeat matchup from episode 2)
  • Francesca and Morgan
  • Julia and Tyler
  • Kaylen and Giovanni (a repeat matchup from episodes 1, 2, and 3 — these two remain very good odds for being a match)
  • Mikala and Cameron — PERFECT MATCH
  • Nicole and Cam
  • Tori and Stephen (a repeat matchup from episode 2)
  • Victoria and John
  • Which results in… get this, FOUR beams. FOUR!! And not only that, but their strategic pairings of past matchups means that they’re closing in on being able to use the process of elimination to winnow down their perfect matches. We’ll keep crunching the numbers and potential outcomes, but safe to say the house is looking like they’re in a great position for the rest of the season.

    Episode Four

    The house really gets down to work in an action-packed fourth episode of the series, which results in another four-beam matchup ceremony. It seems like, against all odds, MTV’s producers may have actually found a semi-competent group of lovelorn alcoholics to participate in their series, because they seriously have got their shit on lock.

    The matchups in week four:

  • Alyssa and Sam (a repeat matchup from episodes 1 and 3) — the Wikipedia guru Nick Uhlenhuth predicts that the two have a 50% chance of being a perfect match, which means we’re upgrading the two to decent odds of being a match.
  • Camille and Asaf (a repeat matchup from episodes 2 and 3) — Nick’s algorithm gives the two a 54% chance of being a match, so we’re upgrading them to decent odds of being a perfect match, especially after we found out that Tori and Camille are not a match.
  • Emma and Cam
  • Francesca and Tyler
  • Julia and Stephen
  • Kaylen and Giovanni (a repeat matchup from episodes 1, 2, 3 and 4 — these two remain the best remaining odds of being a perfect match, clocking in at 67% odds of being a perfect match according to Nick’s code.)
  • Mikala and Cameron — PERFECT MATCH
  • Nicole and Prosper
  • Tori and Morgan
  • Victoria and John (a repeat matchup from episode 3)
  • We’ll follow up with more info and analysis on the likelihood of each potential matches, but for as dumb as this group can be sometimes, this seems like it’ll be pretty hard for them to fuck it all up — but then again, who knows when the evil genius Devlin is involved.

    UPDATE

    If we assume that we’re correct in guessing that Alyssa/Sam, Camille/Asaf, and Kaylen/Giovanni are all perfect matches (and that’s still a major if, clocking in at about 18% odds of all three being a perfect match), then we can really start to make some deductions. Here’s what the grid would looks like if they were all perfect matches:

    There are 18% odds that the Are You The One matchup grid could look like this

    By process of elimination (because perfect matches eliminate other potential matches for the contestants, and the number of beams in a given round eliminate other possibilities), we would then know that Julia and Prosper are a perfect match. It would then leave open the following matchup possibilities:

    -Emma with Morgan, Stephen, or Tyler
    -Francesca with Cam, John, or Stephen
    -Nicole with Morgan or Tyler
    -Tori with Cam or John
    -Victoria with Morgan or Stephen

    Again, this is a major if, and even assuming that those three couples are perfect matches doesn’t get us to knowing all perfect matches. But it would certainly go a long way.

    Episode Five

    Welp, after we thought we were really starting to get somewhere, episode five — despite its four beams — was a bit of a setback for the house. The matchup ceremony, coupled with the reveal that Kaylen and Giovanni are not a perfect match in the truth booth, means that we don’t know as much as we thought we might after the last episode.

    The matchups in week five:

    • Alyssa and Sam (a repeat matchup from episodes 1, 3, and 4) — these two consider to be pretty damn good odds for being a perfect match according to Nick Uhlenhuth at Wikipedia.
    • Camille and Asaf (a repeat matchup from episodes 2, 3, and 4) — These two have a 95% chance of being a perfect match, which is good as certain in the house.
    • Emma and Cam, a repeat from episode 4.
    • Francesca and Giovanni — sure, why not? Nobody else seems to work with Francesca so far.
    • Julia and Morgan, a repeat from episode 1.
    • Kaylen and Tyler — after Kaylen and Giovanni were deemed to not be a match, we don’t really have a great sense of who Kaylen or Giovanni’s perfect match might be, so time to get cracking.
    • Mikala and Cameron — PERFECT MATCH
    • Nicole and Stephen, a repeat matchup from episode 1.
    • Tori and John
    • Victoria and Prosper

    Again, here’s how the grid looks after episode five:

    All of the perfect matches and each episode's matchups through five episodes of Are You The One? season 4

    Well, these aren’t geniuses, but to their credit, at least they’re smarter than the parade of people on display in Cleveland. Until next time, friendos.

    UPDATED

    The best strategy for episode 6 would be for the house to send Sam and Alyssa into the Truth Booth. If they’re a perfect match, then great, we’re starting to begin the process of winnowing things down. But, if we find out that they’re not a perfect match, then things get a whole lot easier. Here’s what the grid would look like if Sam and Alyssa were not a perfect match:

    This is what the matchup grid might look like in MTV's AYTO season 4 episode 6

    If the two aren’t a match, then we can practically determine the rest of the grid. Based on past results, the following couples would have to be a perfect match:

    -Camille and Asaf
    -Emma and Prosper
    -Francesca and Tyler
    -Julia and Morgan
    -Mikala and Cameron (from their positive Truth Booth)
    -Nicole and Stephen
    -Victoria and John

    This would also eliminate a lot of potential matches for the remaining house members, making Giovanni likely to be paired with Alyssa, Sam likely to be paired with Kaylen, and Tori likely to be paired with Cam.

    Let’s just hope they can get their shit together enough to try this out.

    Episode Six

    Tensions in the house seem to keep rising, but strategically the house seems (surprisingly) to keep making correct moves. That paid off with one perfect match in the Truth Booth (Sam & Alyssa) and four beams (like always it seems like) at the matchup ceremony.

    The matchups in week six:

    • Alyssa and Sam — PERFECT MATCH!! We totally called it! Well, at least the law of probabilities and strongly suggested these two crazy kids from the Illinois suburbs would be a perfect match. Hope these two enjoy their bliss far away from the rest of the house.
    • Camille and Asaf (a repeat matchup from episodes 2, 3, 4, and 5) — These two continue being the best possible odds the house has of finding their next possible perfect match. The odds are in Camille and Asaf’s favor, even if the two have lost favor with most of the house it seems like. If, however, the two aren’t a perfect match, then (similar to the last episode) we know all of the other matchups in the house — so these two should absolutely go into the Truth Booth in episode 7.
    • Emma and John, a repeat from episode 1. Surely this can only go well.
    • Francesca and Giovanni — a repeat from episode 5.
    • Julia and Stephen — it seems most likely that Julia’s perfect match is going to be Giovanni, but there’s still a chance that her match could be either Stephen or Cam instead.
    • Kaylen and Prosper — sure, I guess.
    • Mikala and Cameron — PERFECT MATCH
    • Nicole and Tyler — these two likely aren’t a match, both because of their complete and total lack of chemistry and because of the odds from the rest of the house’s matches.
    • Tori and Morgan
    • Victoria and Cam

    Again, here’s how the grid looks after episode six:
    Perfect matches and most likely matches for MTV's Are You The One? season 4 episode 6

    Episode 7

    As noted above, after episode 7 we can actually deduce all ten perfect matches in the house. But for those keeping track at home, here’s what the grid looks like without making all those deductions following ep. 7:

    Perfect matches grid for MTV's Are You The One through episode 7

    The matchups for the seventh episode — which resulted in four light beams during the matchup ceremony — were as follows:

    • Alyssa and Sam (a confirmed perfect match from the Truth Booth)
    • Camille and Tyler
    • Emma and Giovanni
    • Francesca and Asaf
    • Julia and Stephen
    • Kaylen and John
    • Mikala and Cameron (our first Truth Booth success)
    • Nicole and Cam
    • Tori and Morgan
    • Victoria and Prosper

    Again, you can find all ten perfect matches for episode 7 HERE, as it’s now just a waiting game to see if these roided up lunkheads can get their shit together in time to win their cash-money prize.

    Episode 8

    Again, we already know all 10 perfect matches in the AYTO house, which, after the blackout in episode 8, the house should have a good sense of as well. Here’s what the grid looks like after episode 8:

    Matchup grid for AYTO perfect matches after episode 8 of season 4

    Because of the blackout in episode 8 — besides the two already-confirmed perfect matches, the house didn’t get any other beams representing perfect matches in the matchup ceremony — the house knows that anybody matched up in episode 8 who hasn’t been confirmed in the Truth Booth cannot be a perfect match.

    • Alyssa and Sam (a confirmed perfect match from the Truth Booth)
    • Camille and Asaf
    • Emma and Tyler
    • Francesca and Prosper
    • Julia and Stephen
    • Kaylen and John
    • Mikala and Cameron (our first Truth Booth success)
    • Nicole and Giovanni
    • Tori and Cam
    • Victoria and Morgan

    Again, you can find all ten perfect matches for season 4 HERE, and we’ll have to wait until next week to see if this house can get their shit together in time to figure everything out.

    We’ll keep posting updated analysis here, in addition to our weekly recaps that can be found here. Be sure and hit us up on Twitter or email with any questions or comments as the season progresses, and feel free to follow along with our public Google doc here.

    Good luck, and may the surprisingly-difficult odds be ever in our fearless contestants’ favor.


    • Cristal

      Hi, my name is Cristal. I hate to disagree on the last prediction of perfect matches because if your list of perfect matches was correct, there would have been 5 bleams in episode 4. In my opinion, I think these couples are a perfect match< Camille & Asaf, Emma & John, Tori & Stephen, Julia & Giovanni, Francesca & Tyler, Kaylen & Cam, Nicole & Morgan, and Victoria & Prosper. I'm going more logical, then how much love connection I see between the two people.

      • LowLinK

        I totally agree with you!

      • dana

        I think it could be Victoria and John, Julia and Giovanni, Emma and Stephen, Tyler and Francesca, kaylen and prosper, Nicole and cam, tori and Morgan, and Camille and Asaf

        • MeganMeow

          That’s not possible because there would’ve been 6 beams on episode 4.

    • PunKens

      If you do the math then there is only one possible solution. Both solutions posted are incorrect. I don’t want to spoil the fun just yet!

    • LB

      My guess on matches:

      McKayla & Cameron
      Alyssa & Sam

      Camille & Tyler
      Emma & Prosper
      Francesca & Gio
      Julia & Cam

      Kaylyn & Asaf
      Nicole & Steven
      Tori & Morgan
      Victoria & John