We're trying to figure out each perfect match in the Are You The One house

Are You The One? Season 3 Matchup Grid [updated following episode 8]

November 04, 2015 / by / 23 Comments

UPDATE: We think we know all 10 perfect matches in the house. Read the analysis and predictions here.

8 episodes in, and with only one more episode to go, can this house get their shit together to find their perfect matches before it’s all over? Using our cold-hearted statistical analysis, we think we know all but two of the house’s perfect matches. Let’s make the statistical magic happen!

While it’s entirely possible that the house nails it on the series finale, that’s far guaranteed. Here’s where we’re at so far after episode 8:1

Amanda: Paired with Mike in weeks 1 and 2, so her match can’t be Mike. Paired with Austin in week 3, Alec in week 4, and Tyler in week 5. Amanda paired with Chuck in week 6, because somebody had to and maybe because watching him have sex in front of the rest of the house was a real turn on for her. Amanda paired with Hunter in week 7, because nobody has an effing clue at this point. Amanda paired with Chuck again in week 8, who would be her most likely match if it weren’t for the fact that Chuck and Melanie have a higher likelihood of being a perfect match. If Amanda and Chuck aren’t a match, then her perfect match is most likely Nelson. LET’S GET HER IN THE TRUTH BOOTH.

Britni: Paired with Hunter in week 1 and Zak in week 2. Despite partnering with Hunter again in week 3, Britni paired with Nelson in week 4. Despite the heavy odds that her perfect match is Hunter, Britni continued her streak of pairing up around the house by matching up with Mike in week 5, which actually helped eliminate them as a match, since they can’t logically be one of the lights in week 5.2 Britni got with the program and paired up again with Hunter in week 6. Odds are looking decent for these two, although Britni pairing with Devin in week 7 doesn’t eliminate him as a possibility for her either, so we’re downgraded Britni/Hunter to “decent odds” status. Now, after Britni paired with Hunter in week 8, we’re almost certain they’re a match.

Chelsey: OUR FIRST PERFECT MATCH!! Chelsey and Connor are great. Let’s all be happy for the two of them together, and celebrate calling them being a match all like:

Before remembering how far this house has to go in a single episode.

Cheyenne: Paired with Nelson in weeks 1 and 2, so her match can’t be Nelson. Paired with Tyler in week 3, Zak in week 4, and Devin in week 5. Cheyenne paired with Austin following his Machiavellian strategy of using logic over hormones to decide the matchups in week 6, but returned to Tyler in week 7. Perhaps Ryan Devlin’s magical sorcery has a clue who she’s paired with, but her odds have been the hardest to pin down. Even though she paired with Tyler again in week 8, we’re going out on a limb here and predicting that her match is Mike. Trust us.3

Hannah: Paired with Chuck in weeks 1 and 2, so her match can’t be Chuck (lucky girl). Paired with Zak in week 3, Devin in week 4, Austin in week 5, and Tyler in week 6 because why the hell not. After pairing with Zak again in week 7, we bumped their odds up to “decent probability,” considering the decreased likelihood that Zak and Kayla are a match. Now, after week 8 and another Zak/Hannah pairing, we’re predicting that they’re a perfect match.

Kayla: Paired with Zak in week 1, and Connor in week 2. Partnered with Mike in weeks 3 and 4 before returning to Zak in week 5. After partnering again with Zak in week 6, their odds of ending up together were actually somewhat high — Zak’s a little bit of a wild card, but the two did pair up during weeks 1, 5, and 6, meaning it’s likely that they’re a match if neither Alec/Stacey nor Hunter/Britni pan out. But without eliminating either of those two other pairs, Kayla and Zak’s odds didn’t look great, especially after Kayla paired with Austin in week 7, a decent candidate for her. After a week 8 pairing between Kayla and Nelson, we’re going with Austin as Kayla’s perfect match.

Kiki: Paired with Austin in weeks 1 and 2, so her match can’t be Austin. Kiki, in back-to-back-to-back appearances in the cruel confines of the Truth Booth, also found out that her perfect match wasn’t Hunter, Devin, or Zak. After pairing with Chuck in weeks 3, 4, and 5, the odds seemed likely that they were a perfect match until BOOM! the Truth Booth struck again, leaving Kiki with pretty much equal odds that her match is Alec, Mike, Nelson, or Tyler. It’s too much of a pain to double-check this, but Kiki has almost certainly shattered any previous records for number of Truth Booth visits, and has handled herself with relative aplomb all things considered. Kiki paired up with Nelson in weeks 6 and 7, a combo that had decent odds of being a perfect match. But thanks to the emotional turmoil of the truth booth, we can eliminate Kiki and Nelson. Congratulations Tyler, you’re now our best bet for Kiki’s perfect match.

Melanie: Paired with Devin in weeks 1 and 2, so her match can’t be Devin. Paired with Nelson in week 3, Tyler in week 4, and Hunter in week 5. After pairing with Mike in week 6, we can’t say much for sure, although we can logically eliminate her and Hunter, since the two couldn’t have logically been one of the lights in week 5. Week 7’s truth booth eliminated Mel and Alec as a match, which helped increase the likelihood of Alec/Stacey, and her matchup with Chuck in week 7 and week 8 made Mel the most likely candidate to have a secret case of the Chuckles. Sorry Melanie, you deserve so much more.

Rashida: Paired with Tyler in weeks 1 and 2, so her match can’t be Tyler. Paired with Devin in week 3, Hunter in week 4, and Nelson in week 5. After going back with Devin in week 6, odds are looking pretty good that they’re a match, although things are far from clear. Rashida paired with Alec in week 7, but after pairing with Devin once more in week 8, we think her perfect match is Devin.

Stacey: Paired with Alec in week 1 and Hunter in week 2. Despite having a 44% chance of being a perfect match with Alec after pairing with him again in week 3, Stacey partnered with Austin in week 4. Stacey returned to Alec in weeks 5 and 6, and the couple has become one of the most likely remaining perfect matches in the house, standing strong at 46% odds of being a perfect match. We upgraded the two to “likely match” status. Stacey paired with Mike in week 7, and back to Alec in week 8. Because we think that Alec and Amanda are the most likely match, we think that Nelson is Stacey’s match.

Which brings us to the all-knowing, delightfully-color-coded grid, complete with our official predictions of each pair! This is what our grid currently looks like after episode 8: (you can follow along on the google doc here):

We think we found every person's match on MTV's Are You The One

A gif-ical representation of our process

Week 1 Matchups: 2 perfect matches

Hannah & Chuck, Rashida & Tyler, Amanda & Mike, Melanie & Devin, Chelsea & Connor, Kiki & Austin, Stacey & Alec, Britni & Hunter, Cheyenne & Nelson, Kayla & Zak

Because only four of those couples were matched up in the first week but not the second week (the week of the blackout), we know that two of these four couples must be perfect matches: Stacey & Alec, Chelsey & Connor, Hunter & Britni, and Kayla & Zak.

Week 2 Matchups: 0 perfect matches

Alec & Chelsey, Austin & Kiki, Chuck & Hannah, Connor & Kayla, Devin & Melanie, Hunter & Stacey, Mike & Amanda, Tyler & Rashida, Zak & Britni.

Although we’re sure the contestants were bummed to flush $250k down their vomit-stained toilet, their blackout does have a significant advantage, in that they learned that no pairs that were matched up in week 2 are perfect matches, but also that since only four pairs from week 1 changed in week 2, two out of the four pairs in week 1 must be perfect matches.

Are you the one blackout reaction

Week 3 Matchups: 3 perfect matches

Alec & Stacey, Austin & Amanda, Chuck & Kiki, Connor & Chelsey, Devin & Rashida, Hunter & Britni, Mike & Kayla, Tyler & Cheyenne, Zak & Hannah.

The house took a step forward in week 3, but I think they could have been far more strategic. For one, the couples who paired up in week 1 but not in week 2 (Stacey & Alec, Chelsey & Connor, Hunter & Britni, and Kayla & Zak) should have partnered up for the challenge, so that if they won the challenge one of those four couples could be sent into the Truth Booth to test the 50-50 odds that one of those 4 pairs is a perfect match. I think throwing Kiki into her 3rd truth booth in as many weeks with Zak was a smart move, since it eliminated another potential match for Kiki (6 options remaining) while also getting more info on Zak. 

It would have been a ballsy move to risk another $250k at the matchup ceremony, but I would have loved if everybody who matched up in episode 2 selected one another again in episode 3, except for one or two of the pairs who had a 50% chance of being a match going into the episode (Stacey & Alec, Chelsey & Connor, Hunter & Britni, and Kayla & Zak). That would have resulted in potentially finding two perfect matches while also striking two other couples off the list. 

Week 4 Matchups: 2 perfect matches

Alec & Amanda, Austin & Stacey, Chuck & Kiki, Connor & Chelsey, Devin & Hannah, Hunter & Rashida, Mike & Kayla, Nelson & Britni, Tyler & Melanie, and Zak & Cheyenne.

Stay tuned for all of the fun and weekly recaps of everyone’s favorite orgy here at National Ave, and check in next week for our updated grid.

Week 5 Matchups: 2 perfect matches (1 of which is Connor & Chelsey)

Alec & Stacey, Austin & Hannah, Chuck & Kiki, Connor & Chelsey (perfect match), Devin & Cheyenne, Hunter & Melanie, Mike & Britni, Nelson & Rashida, Tyler & Amanda, and Zak & Kayla.

Week 6 Matchups: 3 perfect matches (1 of which is Connor & Chelsey)

Alec & Stacey, Austin & Cheyenne, Chuck & Amanda, Connor & Chelsey (perfect match), Devin & Rashida, Hunter & Britni, Mike & Melanie, Nelson & Kiki, Tyler & Hannah, and Zak & Kayla.

Week 7 Matchups: 3 perfect matches (1 of which is Connor & Chelsey)

Alec & Rashida, Austin & Kayla, Chuck & Melanie, Connor & Chelsey (perfect match), Devin & Britni, Hunter & Amanda, Mike & Stacey, Nelson & Kiki, Tyler & Cheyenne, and Zak & Hannah.


Week 8 Matchups: 3 perfect matches (1 of which is Connor & Chelsey)

Alec & Stacey, Austin & Kiki, Chuck & Amanda, Connor & Chelsey (perfect match), Devin & Rashida, Hunter & Britni, Mike & Melanie, Nelson & Kayla, Tyler & Cheyenne, and Zak & Hannah.

Stay tuned for all of the fun and weekly recaps of everyone’s favorite orgy here at National Ave, and check in next week for our updated grid.